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DealMakers AFRICA Q2 2026 issue

Contents
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CONTENTS

FROM THE  EDITOR'S DESK

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During the six months to the end of June 2026, deal activity across the continent – while softer than that recorded in the first half of 2025 – demonstrated the strength and resilience of Africa’s M&A market. Strategic investors continued to pursue long-term growth opportunities despite a more measured global investment environment, but geopolitical developments have heightened uncertainty and prompted buyers andinvestors to adopt a more cautious approach to transactions in the region.

The total value of M&A deals captured by DealMakers AFRICA in H1 2026, excluding South Africa, was US$5,58 billion – a 10% decline yearon- year. Deal volumes reflected a similar trend, with 166 deals recorded: c.13% lower than the 2025 first-half total.

At a regional level, West Africa was (by some margin) the most active market, accounting for 55 deals, or one-third of total reported activity during the period. East Africa followed with 39 deals and North Africa with 34. Within these regions, Nigeria (39 deals), Kenya (25), Egypt (18) and Morocco (15) emerged as the key drivers of activity (pg 3).
 

Despite broader global caution, upstream energy and mining continued to attract aggressive andopportunistic buyers. Landmark transactions in these sectors (pg 6) included two deals in Angola and two in Ghana, alongside a transaction in Equatorial Guinea, with a combined value of $1,21 billion.


Private equity continued to play a significant role, although activity was also softer, accounting for76 of the deals recorded during the period (pg 4). The decline in private equity deal numbers since 2023 (when 136 transactions were recorded) highlights both the extent of investor caution and the challenges associated with investment exits on the continent. According to Africa: The Big Deal, Africa’s startup funding ecosystem continues to demonstrate resilience. Fintech led the way, followed closely by Logistics & Transport. Rounding out the top five were Agri & Food, Waste Management, and Energy & Water. The funding mix, now almost evenly balanced between equity and debt, appears to have become the new norm, a marked shift from 12 to 18 months ago, when the ecosystem was significantly more equity-led. Africa’s attractiveness remains underpinned by powerful long-term structural trends, including rapid urbanisation, abundant natural resources, opportunities arising from the energy transition, and the expansion of a growing middle class. These fundamentals should continue to support investment across areas such as ESG, fintech and value-added financial services.


 

This year’s DealMakers AFRICA Women of 2026, to be released on 27 August, features women who are not simply succeeding within Africa’s dealmaking, investment and entrepreneurial landscape, but helping to shape it. Through the transactions they lead, the businesses they build, the capital they deploy and the people they mentor, they are contributing to a more diverse, dynamic and inclusive African economy. And as the continent’s economies evolve, so too does the face of those shaping them. Increasingly, that face is female.


My grateful thanks go to the firms featured for their continued support and participation. Their commitment to recognising and celebrating the contribution of women across Africa’s business and investment landscape is appreciated.

Editors Note

Marylou Greig

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Reginal Analysis
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Africa in Numbers
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African M&A

THORTS  

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African M&A: execution certainty in a more selective market

Walter Miles and Ronisha Singh

African M&A in 2026 is telling a more nuanced story than the headlines suggest. The market is indeed rising, but not uniformly, and few practitioners on live mandates would describe it that way. It is the high-quality and best-considered transactions that are thriving. 


Businesses with scale, a believable equity story and a route through financing and approvals are attracting serious interest. This is best evidenced by the divergence between Africa’s 17% drop in deal count in 2025 while also achieving 18% growth by aggregate deal value. The practical point is simple: the market is rewarding preparation and exposing weakly prepared deals much earlier, and that matters for boards, sponsors and advisers alike. 


African dealmaking is being driven by several overlapping themes, rather than a single continental narrative: strategics building regional reach, sponsors backing consolidation in fragmented sectors, and African corporates pursuing outbound and intra-African acquisitions with more confidence than in prior cycles. Energy and fintech deals populated much of the top 10 by value in 2025, with infrastructure, technology, media and telecommunications (TMT), and resources and minerals also being visibly buoyant in the data. And jurisdictionally, certain anticipated leaders continued to secure high levels of investor attention, with South Africa, Kenya and Egypt accounting for 70% of aggregate deal value – although the wide jurisdictional spread outside of these three showed that sophisticated investors can find value across the whole continent. In that setting, risk allocation is not a late-stage legal exercise; in more sophisticated transactions, it often shapes timetables, offers bid differentiation and, ultimately, eases the negotiation pressures between the buyer and seller.

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Walter Miles 
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Ronisha Singh

That is most obvious where a strong investment case sits alongside messy execution risk. A buyer may be backing a high-conviction sector and still have to work through fragmented insurance programmes, legacy tax issues, change-of-control provisions, licensing or concession dependencies, local approvals, and management teams that have not been through many institutional M&A processes. None of that is uniquely African, and none of it should deter serious investors. But it does mean the better deal teams are quite deliberate about what risks can be mitigated, what can be priced, and what is better transferred to insurers if momentum is to be preserved.
Against that backdrop, warranty and indemnity insurance (W&I) is no longer novel. Most readers of this publication will know it transfers the seller’s post-completion liability for warranties to the insurance market. The more useful observation is that the W&I market has matured: insurer appetite is broader, underwriting is better informed, and African risk footprints that would once have been treated cautiously are now being quoted by a wide group of credible insurers. At present, there are 15+ insurers with appetite for the continent – more than double the number from 2021 – which has allowed us to drive the rate-on-line down materially across the continent. When used properly, W&I’s benefits as an insurance product, matched by its utility as an execution tool, can help a seller achieve a cleaner exit, support a buyer’s bid, keep liability negotiations from overwhelming the deal, and allow an unfortunate buyer to make a warranty claim without triggering undesirable political or commercial fallout with the warrantors.


But an informed transaction risk discussion cannot stop at W&I, because many of the issues that truly affect value and timing are known issues, rather than unknown ones. That is where tax insurance and contingent risk insurance can be particularly effective. If a specific tax, legal or regulatory issue is distorting negotiations, delaying signing or forcing parties into cumbersome indemnity structures, a well-structured policy can give both sides a workable bridge. Not every transaction needs that solution, but some do, and when they do, it can be the difference between a stalled process and a signable one.


Insurance due diligence remains underutilised in some M&A processes. For private equity investors, insurance due diligence can be key in identifying uninsured risk exposures and hidden liabilities to enhance valuation accuracy, ensure regulatory compliance and help with post-close integration. For strategic buyers, the process can help highlight synergies between the acquired company’s risk profile and the parent company’s insurance structure. It can reveal something about claims behaviour, support purchase price assumptions, assess contractual risk transfer, programme adequacy and governance maturity, and identify hidden cost leakage that may matter for EBITDA resilience after closing. Used properly, insurance diligence should inform purchase price assumptions, SPA strategy, change of control provisions, transition planning and, for sponsors, the value-protection plan through the hold period. 


The lens should then widen further after completion. Portfolio solutions matter where a sponsor holds multiple businesses (especially if this is across multiple jurisdictions) as this typically results in cover inconsistency, mismatched limits, different renewal cycles and uneven governance. Bringing more order to that can improve efficiency, reduce friction at claim time, and give management and investors a clearer view of retained risk. Political risk insurance also remains important in selected jurisdictions, sectors and structures, particularly where value depends on licences, concessions, convertibility, contract sanctity or a public-sector counterparty. 


That, in many respects, is the real evolution in African M&A. The question is no longer whether transaction risk solutions exist for the continent. The better question is how they can be used intelligently across a deal: before bid, during diligence and SPA negotiation, and after completion. That is relevant to inbound capital, outbound African investment and intra-African consolidation alike. In a market where conviction is still there but scrutiny is sharper, the firms that execute best will usually be the ones that combine ambition with clearer risk allocation and fewer avoidable surprises. 


Miles is Head of Transactional Risk Solutions for Middle East & Africa and Singh is Head of Transaction Advisory for Middle East & Africa | Private Equity and Mergers & Acquisitions (PEMA) at Marsh

Beyond the ten year fund

THORTS  

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Beyond the ten-year fund: Permanent capital as a potential African alternative

Mikayla Barker

There are various forms of investment vehicles, each with their own advantages and disadvantages. 
Private equity (PE) faces distinct structural headwinds in Africa. Shallow and illiquid capital markets make exits hard to execute because initial public offering opportunities are thin, and trade sale buyers with the balance sheet depth to pay full value are scarcer than in developed markets. Currency volatility and limited hedging instruments erode USD-denominated returns even when the underlying business performs well in local currency terms, while inconsistent regulatory enforcement, land/title uncertainty and slower judicial recourse raise the cost and duration of due diligence and post investment monitoring. The result is that closed-end funds are often required to (i) extend their term, or (ii) establish a continuation vehicle. However, these routes merely serve to manage the symptoms and do not cure the root problem. 

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Mikayla Barker

A third option is highlighted in this article, namely a permanent capital vehicle (PCV). A PCV is a fund structure with no fixed term or mandatory wind-down date. Capital is raised to hold assets indefinitely (or on a rolling, evergreen basis), rather than being returned to investors within a typical fund life. Returns to limited partners come through periodic distributions (dividends, refinancing or partial realisation) rather than a forced sale of the underlying asset at a predetermined point. 


For African assets spanning multiple jurisdictions, which inherently take longer to reach full value, a PCV should be treated as a structuring choice made from the outset, rather than a fallback used once the fund reaches its investment horizon. Unlike the first two solutions mentioned above, a PCV does not manage the exit better, it removes the need for one. The trade-off, however, is a significantly narrower investor universe, typically limited to development finance institutions (DFIs) and other investors willing to commit patient, long-term capital. 


ON THE CLOCK
A closed-end fund (Fund) is a PE structure with a capped pool of capital and a fixed lifespan. Investors (being limited partners) commit capital during a defined fundraising window. That capital is deployed over a period of three to five years, with the Fund then expected to exit its assets and return proceeds within a total life of ten years, sometimes even between twelve and fifteen years. 
The clock does not pause for a distressed buyer pool or for assets still in their ramp-up phase. When a Fund reaches its investment horizon, its managers owe their limited partners liquidity, not because the assets have reached the right moment to sell, but rather because the Fund’s constitutional documents say so. 


WHY THIS IS NOT AN IDEAL FIT FOR AFRICA
Such a fixed timeline is a particularly poor fit for the kind of assets common across African PE, which are often held across several jurisdictions at once, each with its own regulator, exchange control regime, currency, and a pool of potential buyers, forcing that complexity to resolve on one calendar and in one process, regardless of which country’s market is actually receptive to a disposal at the Fund’s horizon. This mismatch can be compounded by the asset class itself. A large share of African PE activity is in infrastructure, where early years are absorbed by development and construction costs, gearing is typically high to fund that build-out, and cash flows only turn stable and distributable once the asset reaches operational maturity – a profile that rarely aligns with a fixed Fund clock. 


There is growing optimism around dealmaking across the continent, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, expansion of investable opportunities, and more attractive entry valuations.1 However, this optimism often fades when it comes to exiting these assets. Given global uncertainty, the current backlog looks more like a slow unwind than a healthy, ongoing cycle, with a large share of it concentrated in infrastructure, energy and other long duration assets.


Perhaps the greatest weakness of the traditional Fund model is that time eventually dictates the sale. Once a Fund nears the end of its life, it becomes a known seller. Sophisticated buyers recognise this dynamic and understand that the seller’s need for liquidity may outweigh its ability to wait for the best price. The result is a gradual transfer of negotiating leverage to the buyer, even where the asset itself continues to grow in value. However, some Funds may mitigate these pressures by extending their lifespan or transferring assets into a PCV. Such measures are exceptions, rather than the norm, and usually require investor approval and careful structuring. 


THE BENEFITS OF A PCV
A PCV offers a different set of benefits, precisely because it removes the fixed clock. Assets are held for as long as they continue to earn their place in the portfolio, rather than being sold on a schedule dictated by a Fund’s remaining life. Capital is recycled internally as distributions come in, redeployed into new opportunities or reinvested in existing assets, rather than being returned to limited partners and then re-raised, with all the fundraising drag and timing risk that entails. 


Liquidity for investors is decoupled from any single sale event, since returns can flow through periodic distributions, partial realisations or secondary transactions in the vehicle itself, rather than depending on one disposal landing at the right time in the right market. Governance also shifts accordingly. As no exit deadlines force the sponsor’s hand, incentive structures and reporting cadences can be built around long-term value creation, rather than a countdown to realisation. 


Taken together, a PCV is not a liquidity workaround dressed up in different packaging. It reflects a different ownership philosophy – one built for assets whose value is created over decades, rather than realised on a Fund’s timetable.


WHY NOW?
Two converging forces make this structure more than a theoretical proposition on the continent, given that (i) listed exit routes are becoming less reliable, and (ii) limited partners continue to cite exit unpredictability as their principal reservation.2  By way of an example, in 2024, a fund holding stakes in African energy, infrastructure, digital and aviation assets across multiple jurisdictions reached its investment horizon of fifteen years, at a time when multi-country sale processes would not have realised significant value for its limited partners. Rather than forcing a sale, the Fund’s managers, supported by PSG Capital, restructured the Fund into a PCV – Harith InfraCo – providing the Fund with an alternative exit strategy and materially benefitting limited partners. In recognition of its innovative structure and successful execution, the Harith InfraCo transaction was awarded the DealMakers 2024 Private Equity Deal of the Year award.


The sectors best suited for a PCV share a common profile across African markets, being (i) long duration, contracted cash flows, (ii) assets whose value compounds over a horizon longer than a typical Fund life, and (iii) assets and/or operations which span more than one jurisdiction. Infrastructure is a clear fit for PCVs, but energy, digital and healthcare platforms with similar cash flow and multi-country footprints would also benefit from a PCV structure. Given the scale of infrastructure development still required across the continent, PCVs are not a short-term trend. The pipeline of long duration, multi-jurisdictional infrastructure assets suited to a PCV structure should continue to grow, rather than taper off, over the medium to long-term.


IS A PCV A NICHE SOLUTION OR IS IT A STRUCTURAL SHIFT?
A PCV is not a replacement for a Fund; most PE assets benefit from the disciplined fixed horizon, with most investors not looking for an indefinite hold. But for specific growing African assets across the infrastructure, energy and healthcare sectors, with multiple jurisdictional footprints and a narrow universe of natural trade buyers, a Fund is not a discipline, but rather a liability forcing sales of assets at the wrong time, in markets that would benefit from being held long-term to realise value. 


A PCV does not require stepping outside of PE. The PCV structure remains fit for PE, given the nature of the underlying entity; rather, the exit mechanism changes and not the underlying investment discipline. A PCV allows different investors – whether international DFIs, strategic or public market participants – to participate alongside conventional limited partners within the same structure. When the medium to long-term ambition is a public listing, a PCV can be built as a listing ready vehicle from the outset. The vehicle is not tied to a single exit route either. Depending on the nature of the underlying investments, different assets or portfolios within it can find alternative exit routes if required, without forcing the whole vehicle towards one outcome. 


A PCV, is not, in itself, a panacea for the structural headwinds discussed above. However, it should be considered as part of the standard structuring toolkit when acquiring and holding assets across multiple jurisdictions, rather than being viewed as a solution of last resort when traditional Fund structures have exhausted their options in a particular market. 


Harith InfraCo is proof that a PCV works at scale, spanning several African jurisdictions in a single platform, because the sponsor treated permanent capital as a genuine ownership philosophy rather than a liquidity workaround in challenging markets. 


Finally, for the reader’s convenience, the table below summarises the key distinctions between the traditional Infrastructure PE Fund model and a PCV, bringing together the principal themes discussed in this article. 

Mikayla Barker is a Corporate Financier | PSG Capital

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The DealMakers AFRICA Oval Table

Representatives of the firms make up the Advisory Board which meets twice a year.
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